Semiconductors, Tariffs, & Chip Restrictions Under Trump | Chris Miller

Nov 11, 2024

Chris Miller, an associate professor at Tufts University and author of "Chip War," provides keen insights into the semiconductor industry’s future amidst potential political shifts. He discusses the implications of Trump's 2024 candidacy for U.S. industrial policy and the allocation of funds under the CHIPS Act. Miller delves into the challenges facing American manufacturers like Intel and TSMC, the efficacy of U.S. export controls against China, and the risks of China's tech growth overtaking Western advancements, especially in AI.

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INSIGHT

Policy Continuity

The last three US administrations (Obama, Trump, Biden) showed surprising continuity in industrial policy.
They all subsidized domestic manufacturing and restricted China's access to critical technologies.

INSIGHT

China's Chip Strategy

China invests heavily in lower-end chip manufacturing, while the West focuses on leading-edge chips.
This could lead to a dramatic increase in Chinese production capacity for less advanced chips.

INSIGHT

China's Chip Goals

Chinese chip companies aim for viable businesses, while the government seeks independence from Western chips.
Subsidies drive production increases beyond market demand.

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In Episode 388 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with semiconductor expert Chris Miller about the state and future of the semiconductor industry in the context of Trump’s 2024 U.S. electoral victory, with all its implications for industrial policy, defense spending, tariffs, export controls, trade wars, and much more.

This conversation is a deep-dive into the semiconductor supply chain. Kofinas and Miller discuss how money is currently being allocated under the CHIPS and Science Act, the progress being made in domestic U.S. semiconductor fabrication, the challenges facing TSMC’s Arizona facility, and the troubles at Intel.

They also take a hard look at the outcomes resulting from the U.S. semiconductor export and end-use controls implemented against China, how effective or ineffective they’ve been, and ways to improve them. They also assess China’s own efforts at building out its domestic chip ecosystem and some of the loopholes that Chinese companies are systematically exploiting in order to become fully independent of and eventually overtake Western chipmakers and equipment manufacturers. They discuss the three largest limiting factors to scaling AI data centers, the national security threat posed by Chinese companies leapfrogging their U.S. competitors in the race toward AGI, and much more.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 11/06/2024