3: Joseph Barbuto ON: The Kondratieff Cycle + Understanding Credit Cycles and Asset Prices

In this podcast episode, Scott and Joseph Barbuto discuss Joseph's economic long wave theory and its relation to the real estate market in Canada. He explains the different phases of the economic cycle and the impact of unproductive debt on the economy. Barbuto predicts the end of the current fiat monetary system within a decade and discusses the factors driving real estate prices. He emphasizes the importance of understanding economic cycles and the role of interest rates in determining asset prices. He also discusses the future of technology, the potential for decentralized systems, and the role of gold and Bitcoin in the monetary system. Joseph is the founder of the Economic Longwave, a forecasting model that predicts boom and bust cycles based on the availability and price of credit. The Kondratieff Wave, also known as the Kondratieff Cycle or K-Wave, is a long-term economic theory that suggests capitalist economies go through distinct cycles of expansion and contraction, typically lasting around 50 to 60 years each. This theory was proposed by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff in the 1920s. What We Discuss: [00:00:45] Joseph shares how he discovered the long wave theory and its relation to his career in the investment business. [00:06:03] Explanation of the different seasons of the long wave, including economic spring, economic autumn, and economic winter. As well as the falling price of credit. [00:08:51] Joseph discusses the relationship between credit and economic activity in the long wave theory, emphasizing the importance of productive debt and the consequences of excessive unproductive debt. [00:14:13] Discussion on the correlation between real estate prices, population growth, and affordability in Canada from the 1940s to the present. [00:21:09] Advice on how individuals can prepare for the upcoming economic crisis, including deleveraging and living within one's means. [00:26:14] Discussion on how interest rates affect real estate prices and the importance of credit in the long wave theory. [00:30:34] Exploration of how the interest rate policies in the last 15 years differ from historical norms and the potential consequences, and how we are a credit based economy. [00:35:41] Addressing the belief that governments can prevent a collapse and the need to consider higher interest rates in the future. [00:37:54] Discusses the approaching economic winter where defaulting and government debt explosion will occur. [00:40:35] Explores the role of sound money, gold, and the collapse of the current monetary system. [00:41:40] The most important thing you need to know about the long wave theory. [00:42:48] Discusses the fifth wave driven by information, computer revolution, genomic revolution, artificial intelligence, and other technologies. [00:50:59] Explores the advancements in stem cell technology and its potential to revolutionize healthcare by repairing and preventing diseases, ultimately eradicating disabilities. [00:57:40] Discusses the place of gold as a transitory asset leading to digital gold or Bitcoin, which is seen as the future of money due to its technological advancements and potential for everyday use. [01:01:45] Joseph discusses his belief that by 2040, Bitcoin will emerge as the dominant monetary system over gold due to technological advancements and global adoption rates. Episode Resources: Economic Long Wave | Website Economic Long Wave | YouTube Economic Long Wave | Twitter Economic Long Wave | Substack