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Europe Survived Winter Without Fixing Energy
- Europe survived winter due to mild weather and lower commodity prices, not structural fixes.
- Eurozone remains fragile because 80% of its economy is bank-financed and credit conditions are tightening (Daniel Lacalle).
Monetary Tightening Masks Commodity Tightness
- Monetary contraction and rate hikes have pulled commodity prices down despite tight supply.
- Backwardation in oil shows structural tightness even as spot prices decline (Daniel Lacalle).
Europe's Energy Vulnerability Is Unresolved
- Europe remains exposed because LNG availability is tighter now and China no longer a shutdown supplier.
- Policymakers rely on last winter's anomalies and have increased dependence on intermittent renewables without securing peak supply (Daniel Lacalle).