Anastasiia Lapatina, a Ukraine fellow at Lawfare, shares her insights on the complexities of U.S.-Ukraine negotiations amidst a turbulent political landscape. She discusses the Trump administration's approach to peace settlements in Ukraine and its implications for national security. Lapatina also highlights Germany's recent political shifts toward independence from the U.S. and the potential for European nations to take a more active military role in Ukraine. Their conversation navigates the ethical concerns surrounding foreign policy and the pursuit of Ukraine's economic opportunities.
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insights INSIGHT
Ukraine's Limited Options
Ukraine likely felt pressured into accepting a deal with the Trump administration due to escalating hostility and attacks on Zelensky's legitimacy.
The deal lacks security guarantees or NATO membership, focusing solely on resource extraction.
insights INSIGHT
Potential Benefits for Ukraine
This deal could secure Trump's buy-in for sustained U.S. assistance to Ukraine by aligning with his focus on economic interests.
A larger, seemingly unfavorable deal might offer Ukraine greater long-term benefits and a larger peace dividend.
insights INSIGHT
U.S. Extortion Tactics
The U.S. used pressure tactics, including a UN vote supporting Russia and public diplomacy with Russia, to extort a mineral deal from Ukraine.
This behavior resembles exploitative practices reminiscent of the era of banana republics in Latin America.
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This week, Scott joined his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpett, and Anastasiia Lapatina for a rare, all-in-person discussion of the week’s big national security news, including:
“Chicken Kyiv, Served Cold.” The Trump administration’s vision for a peace settlement in Ukraine is coming into focus—and it’s not the one many Ukrainians and Europeans were hoping for. In negotiations that have largely excluded Ukrainian and European partners—and amidst a barrage of hostile attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s democratic legitimacy—the Trump administration appears to be insisting on some U.S. stake in Ukraine’s rare earth minerals while remaining unwilling to support Ukraine’s NATO membership and resistant to providing hard security guarantees in response. Are the contours of such a deal something Ukraine can agree to? And will it advance U.S. and Ukrainian national security interests?
“Euro Vision.” In some of his first comments since emerging from elections as Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz called for European independence from the United States, in light of the Trump administration’s increasing neglect (and even hostility) to longstanding transatlantic partnerships. And Ukraine may be the first front for this new policy orientation, as European officials have suggested an increased willingness to deploy ground troops to Ukraine, increase their own assistance levels, and even make an alternate offer for access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. How much potential is there for a truly independent European foreign policy? And what will it mean for U.S. national interests?
“Baywatch Reruns.” As part of its aggressive campaign against undocumented migrants, the Trump administration has expanded its use of the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay for what it claims to be the “worst of the worst” undocumented migrants involved in violent crimes. But recent reporting has cast serious doubt on whether everyone who has been detained at Guantanamo meets this qualification, while others have raised questions about the conditions in which detainees are being held and the legal basis for the involvement of military personnel. What is the Trump administration really trying to accomplish? And is Guantanamo Bay once again becoming a black mark on American rule of law?
In object lessons, Natalie confirmed the existence of the year’s most top-secret, exclusive diplomatic gathering—the Lawfare Baby Summit. Anastasiia unveiled Escalation, a long-anticipated narrative podcast series from Lawfare and Goat Rodeo about the history of the U.S.-Ukraine relationship. Scott—in true elder Millennial fashion—identified with the gracefully aging, definitely not old, Before Trilogy from Richard Linklater. And Ben marked the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine with a somber reflection on the sparse turnout at a Lincoln Memorial rally over the weekend, underscoring the ongoing challenge of building mass political movements from within small communities.
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