Rational Security: The “Leftover Chicken Kyiv” Edition
Feb 26, 2025
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Anastasiia Lapatina, a Ukraine fellow at Lawfare, shares her insights on the complexities of U.S.-Ukraine negotiations amidst a turbulent political landscape. She discusses the Trump administration's approach to peace settlements in Ukraine and its implications for national security. Lapatina also highlights Germany's recent political shifts toward independence from the U.S. and the potential for European nations to take a more active military role in Ukraine. Their conversation navigates the ethical concerns surrounding foreign policy and the pursuit of Ukraine's economic opportunities.
The podcast discusses the Trump administration's negotiations regarding Ukraine's rare earth minerals, raising concerns about the exclusion of Ukrainian interests.
Germany's new chancellor advocates for European independence from U.S. foreign policy, potentially altering military and economic strategies toward Ukraine.
The conversation examines the ethical implications of using military facilities for immigration enforcement at Guantanamo Bay, highlighting a troubling trend in policy.
Deep dives
Audience Engagement and Feedback Importance
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Shift to In-Person Recording
The episode marks a significant return to in-person podcast recording, enhancing the dynamic of the conversation. This change adds a level of spontaneity and warmth that remote recordings often lack. The hosts reflect on how this transition rekindles a sense of community and connection. There is a playful acknowledgment of the quirks and ambiance of their recording studio.
National Security News Overview
The podcast dives into pressing national security issues, starting with the evolving situation in Ukraine. It analyzes the implications of the Trump administration's negotiations regarding Ukraine's rare earth minerals. The discussion highlights concerns about the exclusion of Ukrainian interests and the consequences of U.S. policy approaches. A critical examination underscores how these developments could affect both Ukraine and broader U.S. national interests.
European Independence from U.S. Influence
Recent comments from Germany's chancellor reflect a potential shift towards European independence from U.S. foreign policy. As European nations express a desire to take a more prominent role in Ukraine, there’s a visible shift in military and economic strategies. The podcast assesses how this move could alter existing alliances and dependencies on U.S. support. This raises questions about the future of transatlantic relations and European security dynamics.
Guantanamo Bay and Migrant Detention Issues
The expansion of Guantanamo Bay for migrant detention raises serious legal and ethical questions. Current practices show a concerning trend of utilizing military facilities for immigration enforcement. The discussion highlights the desperate need for transparency and adherence to civil rights. The complexity of military jurisdiction over detainees underscores the challenges in navigating existing laws regarding immigration.
Long-term Implications of U.S. Foreign Policy
The podcast contemplates the long-term consequences of the current U.S. administration's foreign policy decisions. It questions the impact on global perceptions of American values, particularly in terms of governance and human rights. As decisions about military engagement and economic partnerships unfold, the broader implications for U.S. credibility on the world stage come into play. The importance of historical context in shaping future policy directions is emphasized.
This week, Scott joined his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpett, and Anastasiia Lapatina for a rare, all-in-person discussion of the week’s big national security news, including:
“Chicken Kyiv, Served Cold.” The Trump administration’s vision for a peace settlement in Ukraine is coming into focus—and it’s not the one many Ukrainians and Europeans were hoping for. In negotiations that have largely excluded Ukrainian and European partners—and amidst a barrage of hostile attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s democratic legitimacy—the Trump administration appears to be insisting on some U.S. stake in Ukraine’s rare earth minerals while remaining unwilling to support Ukraine’s NATO membership and resistant to providing hard security guarantees in response. Are the contours of such a deal something Ukraine can agree to? And will it advance U.S. and Ukrainian national security interests?
“Euro Vision.” In some of his first comments since emerging from elections as Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz called for European independence from the United States, in light of the Trump administration’s increasing neglect (and even hostility) to longstanding transatlantic partnerships. And Ukraine may be the first front for this new policy orientation, as European officials have suggested an increased willingness to deploy ground troops to Ukraine, increase their own assistance levels, and even make an alternate offer for access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. How much potential is there for a truly independent European foreign policy? And what will it mean for U.S. national interests?
“Baywatch Reruns.” As part of its aggressive campaign against undocumented migrants, the Trump administration has expanded its use of the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay for what it claims to be the “worst of the worst” undocumented migrants involved in violent crimes. But recent reporting has cast serious doubt on whether everyone who has been detained at Guantanamo meets this qualification, while others have raised questions about the conditions in which detainees are being held and the legal basis for the involvement of military personnel. What is the Trump administration really trying to accomplish? And is Guantanamo Bay once again becoming a black mark on American rule of law?
In object lessons, Natalie confirmed the existence of the year’s most top-secret, exclusive diplomatic gathering—the Lawfare Baby Summit. Anastasiia unveiled Escalation, a long-anticipated narrative podcast series from Lawfare and Goat Rodeo about the history of the U.S.-Ukraine relationship. Scott—in true elder Millennial fashion—identified with the gracefully aging, definitely not old, Before Trilogy from Richard Linklater. And Ben marked the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine with a somber reflection on the sparse turnout at a Lincoln Memorial rally over the weekend, underscoring the ongoing challenge of building mass political movements from within small communities.
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