Eurodollar University The $25 Trillion AI Bubble Depends on One Thing… Debt
Dec 22, 2025
Steve Van Metre, a financial markets commentator and credit-market analyst, shares his insights on the intersection of AI hype and credit cycles. He discusses Blue Owl's surprising decision to bail on a partnership with Oracle, highlighting shifting funding dynamics. Van Metre emphasizes lenders' growing concerns over Oracle's cash flow and the broader implications for AI investments. The conversation takes a deep dive into the ramifications of tightening credit and how Wall Street's bearish outlook on AI affects firms, ultimately linking these trends to Bitcoin's struggles.
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AI's Growth Relied On Endless Debt
- The AI boom depended on endless debt and Wall Street buying the hype without question.
- When lenders stop believing the economics, the whole AI funding model collapses.
Demand Realistic Payback Before Lending
- Lenders must demand realistic payback prospects before financing AI projects with negative cash flow.
- Avoid financing firms that burn cash without clear revenue paths, warned Steve Van Metre.
Big Funds Signal A Shift In Sentiment
- Blue Owl's refusal to back Oracle signals a sea change in private credit behavior.
- That behavior shift shows portfolio managers fear association with visible credit problems.