Jazmine Ulloa, national politics reporter for The New York Times, and Nate Cohn, The New York Times's chief political analyst, discuss Nikki Haley's rising popularity in the race to become the Republican candidate for 2024. They analyze her potential challenge against Trump and the risks of distancing herself from him. The hosts also explore the similarities between George W. Bush and Trump's positions in politics. Along with updates on Israeli operations in Gaza and the resignation of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, this episode provides valuable insights into the current political landscape.
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Quick takeaways
Nikki Haley's campaign transformed from struggling to gaining momentum, attracting larger crowds and securing influential endorsements.
Nikki Haley appeals to a faction of the Republican party dissatisfied with Trump, offering a moderate political identity separate from him.
Deep dives
Nikki Haley's Early Campaign Challenges
When Nikki Haley began her presidential campaign, her crowds were modest and there wasn't a clear reason why she was running. She faced doubts from voters and even questions about dropping out. Despite this, she started to gain momentum after standout performances in the debates and began attracting larger and more diverse crowds. Her rise in the polls and increasing donations signaled a shift in perception, and she even secured a significant endorsement from influential Republican donor David Koch's network. Nikki Haley's campaign transformed from a candidate struggling to gain support to a strong challenger in the race.
Nikki Haley as a Factional Candidate
Nikki Haley has positioned herself as the best candidate for voters who do not want Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee. Like previous factional candidates, she appeals to a specific group within the Republican party dissatisfied with the front runner. This faction includes independent, moderate Republicans who appreciate her traditional conservatism and her ability to differentiate herself from Trump. Haley's success lies in her ability to offer a political identity separate from Trump, particularly in the areas of foreign policy and abortion, where she has voiced her disagreement and offers more conciliatory and moderate positions.
Challenges and Limitations of Nikki Haley's Campaign
Despite Nikki Haley's success in attracting voters who dislike Trump, she faces significant challenges in challenging him as a serious contender. Winning over the majority of the Republican party is difficult when her appeal is targeted at a faction of the party. The Republican base is more conservative and populist, making her moderate establishment image a potential turnoff for many Trump supporters. While she may win several states and demonstrate viability, history shows that factional candidates often struggle to broaden their appeal in the party. Additionally, Trump's legal challenges could impact the race, but fundamentally, Haley's chances of winning the nomination against Trump remain slim.
Over the last few months, Nikki Haley has gained enough in the polls to suggest she is on the verge of surpassing Ron DeSantis as the main threat to Donald J. Trump in the race to become the Republican candidate for 2024.
Jazmine Ulloa, a national politics reporter for The Times; and Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, discuss her building momentum and examine how far she might go.
Guest: Jazmine Ulloa, a national politics reporter for The New York Times.
Nate Cohn, The New York Times’s chief political analyst.