Dream Podcast - NFL Week 12 THE PICKS !!

9 snips

Nov 21, 2025

Joining the conversation is Steve Fezzik, a two-time Super Contest Champion and expert in NFL betting analysis. He argues for the Raiders team total over 19.5, highlighting Cleveland's poor defense and rookie QB turnover risk. Fezzik also supports the Colts to score first against the Chiefs, while RJ Bell makes a compelling case for the Colts at +3.5. Mackenzie Rivers pushes for the Lions at -10 over the Giants, backed by strong records and favorable matchups. The trio dives into market movements, game trends, and highlights key prop bets for Week 12.

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ADVICE

Target Team Totals After Opponent Turnover Risk

Bet Raiders team total over 19.5 when opponent’s road defense gives up short fields from turnovers.
Use opponent red-zone turnovers and recent offensive form to target team totals, not just game totals.

INSIGHT

Coaching Momentum Drives Post-Loss Performance

Dan Campbell teams are highly reliable after losses, giving Detroit an ATS edge versus weak run defenses.
Matchup-based running game edges amplify when opponent ranks worst versus the run.

ADVICE

Correlate Team Over With RB Props In Blowouts

Use correlated same-game parlays with team overs and individual rushing overs when matchup and game script favor heavy rushing.
Favor late-game workhorses for fourth-quarter rushing overs in expected blowouts.

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RJ bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL betting for Week 12. Best bets as always.

In this Week 12 NFL betting podcast, RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, and Mackenzie Rivers break down matchups, trends, props, and power ratings while debating quarterback value, team motivation, weather effects, and market movement. RJ opens by promoting a 90-day all-access package and highlighting recent hot handicappers. Fezzik's best bet is Raiders team total over 19.5, citing Cleveland’s historically poor road-defense scoring prevention and likely short-field opportunities created by rookie QB Sanders’ turnover risk. RJ and Mackenzie evaluate low totals, weather, and historical under trends but agree the Raiders angle is stronger than the full-game over. RJ’s best bet is Colts +3.5 vs Kansas City, arguing the teams are essentially equal in yards per play, success rate, and win-probability metrics, with KC overrated due to legacy bias and declining defensive performance. Fezzik adds Colts to score first at plus money due to coin-toss tendencies. Mackenzie’s best bet is Lions -10 over the Giants, supported by Dan Campbell’s elite ATS record off a loss, the Giants’ league-worst run defense, and favorable matchups for Detroit’s run game. Fezzik adds Lions team total over 30.5 and an SGP on Gibbs and Montgomery rushing overs. RJ also bets Falcons +2 vs the Saints, believing market overreacted to Kirk Cousins’ injury perception and that Atlanta’s roster, motivation, and power ratings remain stronger than New Orleans’, which may be slipping into tank mode. Later, Fezzik plays Chase Brown under 60.5 rush yards due to expected shotgun-heavy Bengals offense with Burrow limited by turf toe and a strong Patriots run defense. The crew discusses Chicago-Pittsburgh, with RJ making his play contingent: if Rodgers starts, he likes the Bears; if Rudolph starts, he likes the over. They examine Jets-Ravens, Seahawks-Titans, Vikings-Packers, Jaguars-Cardinals, Raiders-Browns, Cowboys-Eagles, Rams-Buccaneers, and broader power-rating tiers, highlighting turnover luck, declining offenses, evolving defenses, team fatigue, coaching signals, and motivational windows. They close by summarizing all official picks and reinforcing that several favorites may be inflated while injured QBs, travel spots, and disguised regression points create value on selected dogs, overs, and player props.

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