20VC: Foundation Models are the Fastest Depreciating Asset in History, Lina Kahn is a Threat to American Capitalism, PE is Not Coming to Save the M&A Market & How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race with Michael Eisenberg
Jun 19, 2024
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Michael Eisenberg, Co-Founder @ Aleph, discusses the depreciation of foundation models in AI investing, the impact of Lina Kahn on capitalism, and the future of M&A market. Insights on China potentially overtaking the US in the AI race and the threats of AI as a weapon in wars. Eisenberg also shares thoughts on liquidity sources for software companies and IPO windows.
AI investing involves risks and value accrual, lessons from dot com era.
Private equity may not save software companies, IPOs are viable exit strategies.
China could surpass US in AI development, AI as a potent weapon in wars.
Deep dives
AI Transformation and Financial Gold Rush
AI technology is acknowledged as transformative, likened to the internet's impact. The current AI boom offers immense growth potential but also involves substantial financial risks akin to past technology bubbles. Despite the financial gold rush, foundational companies and groundbreaking technologies are expected to emerge, although significant financial losses are also projected.
Unique Talent Assets and Market Dynamics
In the AI sector, the assets walking out the door pose a challenge due to the nature of talent-based businesses. The industry's reliance on specialized teams underscores the importance of fostering lasting assets. The market dynamics suggest a mix of significant financial gains for leading companies like OpenAI and challenges for those unable to retain talent effectively.
AI Investments and Defining Venture Success
Venture investments in AI span diverse sectors like synthetic biology, requiring specialized knowledge for distinct market positioning. The shift towards hard tech reflects a departure from saturated software markets but warns investors of potential pitfalls. The discussion touches on strategic portfolio diversification amid evolving market trends and regulatory landscapes impacting liquidity sources.
Implications of Overvalued SaaS Companies in PE Portfolios
Many SaaS companies in private equity portfolios are currently overvalued, leading to potential financial risks as the actual values of these companies may not justify their hefty prices. This creates concerns about the sustainability of high debt levels acquired by PE firms, which could result in financial distress for these companies. The discussion highlights the uncertainty surrounding the fate of such overvalued companies and raises questions about accountability for PE funds that may face challenges due to inflated valuations.
Importance of Conviction and Directness in Venture Capital
The importance of having conviction in investment decisions is emphasized, with a focus on taking decisive actions based on unique insights in the venture capital industry. The speaker advocates for taking significant positions in outlier businesses and capitalizing on successful returns by strategically managing equity. Additionally, the conversation addresses the significance of direct communication and proactive decision-making in board meetings, underscoring the need for assertiveness and clarity in navigating investment opportunities.
Michael Eisenberg is a Co-Founder and General Partner @ Aleph, one of Israel's leading venture firms with a portfolio including the likes of Wix, Lemonade, Empathy, Honeybook and more. Before leading Aleph, Michael was a General Partner @ Benchmark.
In Today's Show with Michael Eisenberg We Discuss:
1. The State of AI Investing:
Why does Michael believe that "foundation models are the fastest depreciating asset in history"?
Are we in an AI bubble today? As an investor, what is the right way to approach this market?
Who will be the biggest losers in this AI investing phase?
Where will the biggest value accrual be? What lessons does Michael have from the dot com for this?
2. Where Is the Liquidity Coming From?
Why does Michael believe that it is BS that private equity will come in and buy a load of software companies and be the primary exit destination?
Why does Michael believe that IPO windows are always open? Should founders go out now? What is good enough revenue numbers to go out into the public markets?
Why does Michael believe that Lina Kahn is a threat to capitalism? How does Michael predict the next 12-24 months for the M&A market?
3. AI as a Weapon: Who Wins: China or the US:
Does Michael agree with the notion that China is 2 years behind the US in AI development?
Does Michael agree that AI could be a more dangerous weapon in wars than nuclear weapons?
Why does Michael suggest that for all founders in Europe, they should leave?
US, China, Israel, Europe, how do they rank for innovating around data regulation for AI?
4. Venture 101: Reserves, Selling Positions and Fund Dying:
Why does Michael only want to do reserves into his middle-performing companies?
What framework does Michael use to determine whether he should sell a position?
Which funds will be the first to die in this next wave of venture?
Why does Michael not do sourcing anymore? Where is he weakest in venture?
Why does Michael believe that no board meeting needs to be over 45 mins?
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