Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

China and the Reordering of World Trade | Former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh

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Dec 24, 2025
Jay Shambaugh, an economist and former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, shares his expertise on the shifting landscape of world trade. He highlights China's persistent trade surplus, driven by state-led investment and overcapacity. Shambaugh discusses the global implications of the 'second China shock', the need for economic restructuring in China, and the challenges of unilateral U.S. policies. He also emphasizes the importance of targeted tariffs and the impact of immigration on the labor market, providing valuable insights into the current economic climate.
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INSIGHT

China's Structural Current Account Problem

  • China runs a persistent savings-investment imbalance that shows up as large current account surpluses.
  • That surplus matters far more now because China is the world's second-largest and largest manufacturing economy.
INSIGHT

State-Driven Overcapacity Distorts Markets

  • China's state-driven allocation creates episodic overcapacity that distorts global industries.
  • Overcapacity forces inefficient firms to lose money and squeezes competitors abroad.
INSIGHT

Shock Is Sectoral, Not Just Aggregate

  • The 'second China shock' hits particular strategic industries more than aggregate US manufacturing totals.
  • Europe, especially Germany, may be more exposed than the US to China's industrial rise.
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