The US economy unlikely to experience a sharp recession in the next 6-9 months

The current dynamics in the real economy do not align with the probability of an all-out sharp recession in the US economy. The macro outlook suggests a continued income-driven economic expansion with potential inflation due to supply shocks. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has not significantly affected the slow-moving macroeconomy, resulting in growth above potential, low unemployment, and inflation slightly above the central bank's comfort level.