Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
Ep. 228: Liang Ding on China’s Economy and Markets
Aug 9, 2024
Liang Ding, a seasoned markets professional with two decades in portfolio management and economics, discusses the current state of China’s economy. He analyzes the impact of potential Fed rate cuts on global equity markets and explores the imbalance between supply and consumer demand in China. Liang highlights the government's efforts to boost consumer spending and the challenges posed by trade tensions and the EV market. He also shares personal anecdotes about Shanghai’s historical neighborhoods, blending economic insights with cultural reflections.
44:34
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Quick takeaways
- The Chinese economy is grappling with a persistent demand-supply imbalance, leading to subdued consumer demand despite reported GDP growth.
- Government initiatives in the property market show initial promise in tier-one cities, but underlying structural issues may undermine long-term stability.
Deep dives
Current State of the Chinese Economy
The Chinese economy is facing a persistent demand-supply imbalance, where excessive supply outstrips consumer demand. Industrial production has slowed compared to last year, with domestic demand showing only slight growth in fixed asset investments. Notably, retail sales experienced a minimal monthly drop, indicating a rapid decline in the pent-up demand following COVID-19 reopening. External demand has not been sufficient to offset weak domestic consumption, highlighting the ongoing challenges within China's economic landscape.
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