More or Less Could this be the strongest El Niño in 1,000 Years?
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Sep 12, 2026 
Zeke Hausfather, a Berkeley Earth climate scientist and Stripe’s climate research lead, explores whether the latest El Niño could be the strongest in centuries, or even 1,000 years. They unpack how scientists measure these events, why forecasts point to a potentially record-breaking peak, and the risks for global heat, drought, crops and famine. Coral records reveal how today’s extremes compare with the distant past.
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How El Niño Moves Heat Into The Atmosphere
- El Niño is a recurring natural climate pattern driven by tropical Pacific winds and ocean circulation.
- Warm water rises toward the surface, reducing ocean heat uptake and warming both the atmosphere and sea surface.
What El Niño Temperature Numbers Actually Measure
- El Niño measurements track sea-surface temperature departures in a specific east-central Pacific region, not global temperature.
- Scientists compare against a rolling 30-year average to isolate event strength from long-term warming.
The Strongest El Niño On Record
- Scientists classify El Niño events from weak to super based on Pacific temperature anomalies.
- The 2015–2016 event tied 1877–1878 as the strongest recorded, peaking around 2.75°C above normal.