JF 4007: Consumer Debt vs. Income, Savings Tailwinds and Q4 Retail Risk with John Chang

On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses the July retail sales print—strong nominally but essentially flat after inflation—and why consumer capacity to spend (healthier debt-to-income ratios and rising savings) is at odds with willingness to spend as sentiment softens. He explains how tariffs are likely to shift more costs from businesses to consumers in coming months, potentially weighing on Q4 sales and nudging inflation higher. Translating this to CRE, John expects more pressure on West Coast industrial (trade-exposed) while retail vacancies drift up from record lows, with grocery/necessity retail holding steadier than restaurants. Longer-term, he sees structural demand supported by millennial spending power, sizable boomer wealth, and improving transaction activity into late-2025/2026.

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