AMD: How Chips Are Changing - [Business Breakdowns, EP. 73]

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Sep 7, 2022

Jay Goldberg, a semiconductor industry consultant at D2D Advisory and Partner at Snowcloud Capital, brings his expertise to discuss AMD's evolution in the chip-making landscape. They delve into AMD's intense competition with Intel and Nvidia and examine the shift towards custom silicon. The conversation also highlights the geopolitical factors influencing manufacturing and explores the financial dynamics that have improved AMD's position in the market. This insightful breakdown reveals how AMD is navigating the transformative semiconductor industry.

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INSIGHT

Semiconductor Industry Origins

The commercial U.S. semiconductor industry started in the 1960s, originating from Bell Labs in the 1950s.
Shockley, despite being a poor manager, had crucial technical vision, and his team's departure led to the founding of Fairchild Semiconductor.

ANECDOTE

Fairchild and the Birth of Giants

Shockley's team left to found Fairchild Semiconductor, which later birthed Intel and AMD.
Intel, founded by Gordon Moore and Andy Grove, focused on making chips cheap and powerful, suitable for consumer electronics.

INSIGHT

Early AMD-Intel Rivalry

Early competition between AMD and Intel centered on product cycles and timely execution.
Intel's superior execution and ability to meet deadlines gave them a significant advantage.

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Today, we’re breaking down a global semiconductor company known as AMD. AMD isn’t the biggest and hasn’t always been the best chip maker in the world. But as cyclical and structural changes take place in the semiconductor industry, AMD serves as a great proxy for what’s going on and why.

To break down the details, both behind the company and the industry, I’m joined by Jay Goldberg, a semiconductor industry consultant at D2D Advisory and Partner at Snowcloud Capital. We explore the rise of custom silicon, AMD’s competition with Intel and Nvidia, and whether or not chip making is a good business at all. Please enjoy this breakdown of AMD.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here.

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Show Notes

[00:02:27] - [First question] - Where to start when it comes to understanding semiconductors

[00:04:21] - Why semiconductors were created in the first place

[00:04:57] - Key milestones and players in the semiconductor industry

[00:07:35] - What are the factors that determine who wins and loses

[00:08:37] - The semiconductor industry map today writ large

[00:12:05] - How the changing geopolitical landscape affects power in this sector

[00:14:15] - Why we can’t just throw unlimited money at this problem to solve it

[00:15:30] - Whether or not chip businesses are actually defensible and good businesses

[00:17:37] - Differences between CPUs and GPUs and how everything we do uses them

[00:22:56] - AMD’s history with CPUs and GPUs and how they’ve evolved over time

[00:26:55] - Why there is such a high barrier to enter and disrupt the chip design market

[00:31:54] - A future where we transition to specific and specialized use-case chips

[00:35:36] - Companies like Google and Apple building their own in-house chips

[00:38:55] - Other industries where this dynamic exists outside of semiconductors

[00:41:57] - The scope and economics of AMD today

[00:44:26] - What’s important to know about AMD and Intel’s capital allocation strategies

[00:47:28] - What he’d focus on if he was the capital allocator for a big chip company

[00:48:55] - One major lesson that this industry has taught him about investing

[00:50:28] - Major lessons about AMD and the world writ large that isn’t addressed yet