Exploring the shifting preferences of young voters towards Biden and potential impact on the 2024 election. Challenges in polling young voters and reasons for decline in Democratic party support among the youth. Analysis of political leanings, third-party appeal, and generational differences in voter behavior. Reflections on Biden's presidency and concerns about American politics.
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Quick takeaways
Young voter turnout played a crucial role in Biden's victory in 2020.
Young voter preferences are shifting, posing challenges for Democrats in upcoming elections.
The accuracy of polling data regarding young voters' preferences is a topic of debate.
Deep dives
Younger Representation in Politics
The podcast discusses the importance of having younger representation in politics from generations like Gen X, millennials, and the oldest of Gen Z. It emphasizes the need for politicians who reflect the future of young Americans, suggesting that older generations may not align with the progression and future vision of the youth.
The Shift in Polling Among Young Voters
The episode highlights the shift in polling among young voters, particularly focusing on the narrowing gap between Biden and Trump in recent polls. It mentions the potential impact of young voters on election outcomes, indicating that even a slight shift in young voter preferences could significantly influence election results.
Divergent Views on Young Voter Polling Accuracy
The discussion delves into the debate surrounding the accuracy of polling results reflecting the preferences of young Americans. Various opinions are presented, questioning the reliability of poll data showing Trump winning young voters and emphasizing the importance of accurate polling methods in capturing the sentiments of young voters.
Challenges and Strategies for Engaging Young Voters
The podcast explores the challenges and strategies for engaging young voters in the upcoming election. It touches on the reasons behind the disaffection and disillusionment among young voters, highlighting the importance of connecting with this demographic through policies and messaging that resonate with their values and priorities.
Impact of RFK Jr. on Young Voter Preferences
The episode delves into the impact of RFK Jr. on young voter preferences, discussing the rise of support for independent candidates among disengaged young voters. It analyzes the dynamics of voter alignment and the influence of third-party candidates on the electoral landscape, suggesting potential shifts in voter behavior leading up to the election.
In the 2020 election, young voters were key to President Joe Biden’s victory. Biden won voters age 18 to 29 by more than 20 points, and the turnout rate among young voters was the highest it has been in decades. But recent polls show Biden slipping among voters under 30. The upshot spells danger for Democrats: According to 538's Swing-O-Matic, if young voters shifted toward former President Donald Trump this fall by just 5 points and everything else remained the same, Trump would win.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen discusses young voters’ role in the 2024 election with John Della Volpe, the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, and Lakshya Jain, partner at the election modeling website Split-Ticket.org.