Exploring the challenges and nuances of polling young voters, this chapter discusses the difficulties in accurately representing their opinions due to low response rates. The conversation delves into the decline in support for the Democratic party among young voters, examining historical preferences, the impact of Biden's presidency, and knowledge gaps in voter engagement. Highlighting priorities and perceptions of young voters, the chapter also touches on the influence of social issues, contrasting views on policies, and reasons for potential party alignment shifts.
In the 2020 election, young voters were key to President Joe Biden’s victory. Biden won voters age 18 to 29 by more than 20 points, and the turnout rate among young voters was the highest it has been in decades. But recent polls show Biden slipping among voters under 30. The upshot spells danger for Democrats: According to 538's Swing-O-Matic, if young voters shifted toward former President Donald Trump this fall by just 5 points and everything else remained the same, Trump would win.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen discusses young voters’ role in the 2024 election with John Della Volpe, the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, and Lakshya Jain, partner at the election modeling website Split-Ticket.org.
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