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Market Expectations
- Markets anticipate a Republican-controlled government, likely due to data-driven reasons.
- This is reflected in asset markets, including stock market leadership and rates/currencies markets.
Populism and Debt
- Regardless of the election winner, expect a significant increase in US sovereign debt due to populism.
- This trend is driven by a broken social contract and regressive wealth transfers.
Populism vs. Establishment
- The election represents a clash between populism (Trump) and the establishment (Harris).
- Their policy intentions, despite some populist rhetoric from Trump, differ significantly.