Chad Syverson, a professor of economics, discusses the looming challenges faced by realtors amid a pivotal legal settlement. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, provides insights into declining sales and rising mortgage rates. Kevin Sears, the 2024 NAR president, emphasizes the need for adapting commission structures. The conversation explores the potential obsolescence of realtors, drawing parallels with travel agents, and the implications for consumer trust and market dynamics as the real estate landscape evolves.
The real estate industry is under pressure due to significant challenges and competition, prompting a reevaluation of its commission structure amid declining home sales.
The National Association of Realtors faces scrutiny over its commission model and practices, particularly after settling a substantial antitrust lawsuit that enforced regulatory changes.
The influx of inexperienced agents in the real estate market leads to a paradox where service quality varies greatly, potentially disadvantaging consumers during transactions.
Deep dives
Difficulties in Real Estate Transactions
The real estate industry has faced significant challenges, particularly illustrated by a recent decline in home sales, hitting the lowest levels in 30 years with only 4 million existing homes sold in 2023. Contributing factors include high mortgage rates, lingering COVID-19 impacts, and overall economic uncertainty. Buying or selling a home remains a stressful, complicated process that often intimidates individuals, making real estate agents essential for guidance. Though they are meant to assist clients, there are criticisms concerning whether realtors always act in the best interests of those they represent.
The National Association of Realtors and Legal Scrutiny
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently settled an antitrust lawsuit, resulting in a payment of $418 million and mandated changes in how real estate commissions are handled. This organization, the largest trade association in the U.S. with over 1.5 million members, faces scrutiny over practices that some economists argue resemble collusion rather than true competition. Critics question the structure of commission rates, historically around 5-6%, which many assert are significantly higher than necessary compared to other countries with lower effective transaction prices. The settlement's aftermath is fostering an already competitive market to adapt to new regulations regarding transparency in commissions.
Commission Structures and Consumer Impact
In the current real estate system, commissions are typically based on a percentage of the home's sale price, with agents pocketing a smaller share after splitting with brokerages. This arrangement often results in agents prioritizing quick sales over maximizing their clients' selling prices, as they generally earn only upon making a transaction. Economists argue that such a system can inadvertently disadvantage sellers, causing them to accept lower offers sooner than they might otherwise. Hence, there is an ongoing debate on whether structuring commissions differently could better serve consumers and increase transparency.
Competition and Inexperienced Agents
The dynamic of the real estate industry leads to a paradox: while it claims to be competitive, the influx of inexperienced agents dilutes the quality of service offered to consumers. Only a small fraction of agents achieve significant financial success, leaving many struggling, particularly in down markets. Research has shown that less experienced agents provide lower quality services, which could affect the likelihood of sales. The ease of entering the field attracts numerous individuals, making it crucial for consumers to recognize the substantial variance in agent expertise.
Future Trends in Real Estate Transactions
The recent legal changes and declining home sales are prompting speculation about future real estate transaction trends. With the NAR eliminated the public display of cooperating compensation on listing services, it’s expected that commissions will become more varied, potentially lowering costs for buyers and sellers. While some predict that consumers may eventually seek out agents for their expertise and reassurance, the structural changes in how agents get paid could reshape the real estate landscape. The emergence of new models and practices as a response to these changes will be closely monitored by industry stakeholders.
Their trade organization just lost a huge lawsuit. Their infamous commission model is under attack. And there are way too many of them. If they go the way of travel agents, will we miss them when they’re gone?
SOURCES:
Sonia Gilbukh, assistant professor of real estate at CUNY Baruch College.
Kevin Sears, 2025 president of the National Association of Realtors.
Chad Syverson, professor of economics at the University of Chicago.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.