Forward Guidance The Recession Has Already Started | George Robertson
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Oct 8, 2025 Monetary analyst George Robertson, author of *Monetary Frontier*, shares his bearish outlook, arguing that the recession has started despite booming markets. He attributes this downturn to fiscal tightening from tariffs, falling corporate profits, and troubling employment indicators. Through his flow-of-funds analysis, he highlights the disconnect between S&P performance and real earnings, raising concerns over job losses and corporate strain. George warns of upcoming economic challenges, urging listeners to reconsider their investment strategies.
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Flow-Of-Funds Framing Beats Sentiment
- Robertson uses flow-of-funds framing: assets minus liabilities equals equity to trace macro dynamics.
- He argues this accounting view reveals fiscal drivers and corporate balance-sheet impacts faster than sentiment-based technicals.
Fed Is Mostly A Non-Factor
- George argues the Fed has been effectively out of the macro impulse since 2014–2015 and rarely moves the flow of funds materially.
- He says the economy is driven mainly by fiscal flows, not Fed actions, so focus on money-in/money-out data.
Tariffs Act As Fiscal Tightening
- Trump-era policies produced a rapid fiscal tightening through job cuts and tariffs that act like a tax on the economy.
- Robertson estimates tariffs and related moves have already removed large fiscal impulse and materially raised corporate tax-like costs.