More or Less: Behind the Stats Federer’s 54%: Tennis stats explained
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Jul 13, 2024 
Tennis stats expert Jeff Sackmann joins Tim Harford to explain how Roger Federer's 54% point win rate translates to a 60% chance of winning a tennis game. They discuss the importance of consistency in point victories for overall match success and explore the correlation between points won and success in tennis, comparing statistics of top players like Federer and Serena Williams.
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Winning Isn't Everything
- Roger Federer highlighted that even top tennis players don't win every point.
- He won only 54% of points played across his career, yet achieved a remarkable 82% match win rate.
Small Margins, Big Wins
- Tennis matches involve numerous points, making small margins significant over time.
- A slight advantage, like winning 54% of points, can lead to a much higher match win rate.
Consistency is King
- Top players like Serena Williams and Roger Federer show similar point-winning percentages around 54-55%.
- This suggests that consistently winning a slight majority of points is key to overall success.