UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Where to start?'
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Oct 13, 2025 The podcast dives into the latest US-China tensions, highlighting Trump's tariff threats and the surprising market recovery. It explores China's strong trade data and hints at rerouting exports to mitigate tariffs. The discussion also touches on the unpredictability of policy impacting investor confidence more than tariffs themselves. Market reactions to political changes in both France and Japan are dissected, with insights on how these developments influence global markets.
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Policy Unpredictability Drives Market Risk
- US tariff threats caused market volatility but later saw conciliatory signals from Trump and Vice President Vance.
- The main risk now is policy unpredictability rather than the direct tariff economic effect.
China's Trade Data Signals Rerouting
- China's September trade data surprised with stronger exports and imports and higher dollar exports to the US.
- The data suggests China may be re-routing exports to help US importers avoid tariffs, reducing expected US tariff revenue.
Watch Policy Clarity For Recovery
- Expect uncertainty to constrain corporate activity until US policy clarity improves.
- Investors should watch for reduced uncertainty as a condition for a 2026 growth recovery.