The Jim Rutt Show

EP 237 Simon DeDeo on the Odds of Major Civil Violence

May 2, 2024
Simon DeDeo, expert on civil violence predictions, discusses the likelihood of major civil violence in America. Topics include terms of wager, orders of magnitude, American readiness for violence, statistical distributions of violence, polarization, basins of attraction, mimetic desire, political distance, tribalization around politics, and scenarios inciting conflicts in a post-ideological world.
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ANECDOTE

Bet Origins

  • Jim Rutt googled French Revolution death tolls to estimate scaled US deaths.
  • He compared this to Pinochet's Chilean death toll, finding similar per capita rates.
INSIGHT

American Violence

  • Americans are comfortable with violence and the threat of it.
  • This is part of our negotiation culture, even in daily life.
ANECDOTE

Violence in Daily Life

  • Simon DeDeo recounts experiences of implied violence while biking and in home repairs.
  • He contrasts this with London and New York, highlighting cultural differences.
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