STR Data Lab™ by AirDNA Midyear STR Outlook: Demand, Supply & Economic Signals
In this episode of the STR Data Lab, Jamie Lane and Bram Gallagher discuss the midyear outlook for the economy and short-term rentals. They explore the updated forecast through 2026, addressing uncertainties surrounding recent economic events, inflation trends, and stock market fluctuations. Despite mixed signals, including recent inflation data and policy disagreements, the economy remains robust with low unemployment and solid job growth. The data shows a strong start for short-term rentals in 2024, with a 5.7% demand growth and 4.6% increase in listings, leading to slightly higher occupancy rates compared to last year. Supply growth, although slower since high interest rates and house prices have cooled the market, is experiencing a rebound.
The episode highlights the variance in performance across different markets, such as urban vs. resort areas, and discusses the impacts of international and domestic demand shifts. They also delve into the impact of changing booking lead times on pacing data and future demand predictions. Gallagher forecasts continued demand and occupancy growth into 2026, while closely monitoring economic indicators, particularly inflation, for any potential disruptions. The discussion culminates in an analysis of economic prospects and the potential impact of policy changes, tariffs, and consumer confidence on the short-term rental market.
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Episode 143