UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The data in focus'
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Jul 29, 2025 The discussion highlights the anticipated June trade balance and its unexpected significance due to political influences. There's a focus on whether international buyers are favoring US products, with Canadians seeming to retreat. US consumers don't appear deterred by foreign imports just yet, despite looming trade taxes. The weakening euro raises questions tied to trade agreements, while the broader economic implications for the EU remain unclear. Currency fluctuations and labor market trends further shape the current economic landscape.
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US June Trade Balance Insight
- The US June trade balance data will not show a trade surplus despite increased taxation on consumers.
- Demand for US products hasn't risen internationally, and Canadian demand has decreased.
Euro Reaction to Trade Deal Uncertainty
- The euro weakened against the US dollar due to concerns about an unclear US-EU trade deal.
- The deal's impact depends on US companies' pricing responses to trade taxes.
Fragile US Labor Market Insights
- US labor market data (JOLTS) is unreliable and shows fragility with slowed hiring and reduced job quitting.
- AI impacts job vacancy reporting as companies explore potential hiring beyond actual openings.