Full Episode - Trump Won’t Say It… But He Knows The Economy Sucks + Capitol Hill Is A MESS & The Vibes Are LOW

On today’s ToddCast, Chuck Todd breaks down Donald Trump’s sudden decision to fully engage on the economy—and why his proposals reveal both political vulnerability and economic incoherence. From promising $2.6 trillion in tariff revenue when only a fraction has ever been collected, to floating the idea of replacing income taxes with wildly regressive consumption taxes that would spike prices severalfold, Trump appears more focused on short-term optics than long-term consequences. Chuck also digs into Congress’ scramble to extend ACA subsidies—an issue so politically toxic for Republicans that even Trump may be forced to back the plan—and how the 2026 economic mood will shape the midterms. Plus, he examines the rise of Democratic “fighters” like Jasmine Crockett, the visibility boost for Gavin Newsom and Mark Kelly after their clashes with Trump, and why a politics obsessed with combat over substance leaves both parties drifting away from meaningful policy debates.

Then, Chuck sits down with Reese Gorman and Kate Nocera of NOTUS for a deep dive into what it means to build a truly nonpartisan newsroom in today’s hyperpolarized media landscape. Reese and Kate explain how NOTUS approaches journalism without playing to partisan expectations—or to social media algorithms—and why being outside the legacy-media universe gives their reporters a unique advantage. They discuss Washington’s shifting culture, from the decline in local DC reporting to the increasingly strained relationship between the press and Congress, where competition for scoops is fierce, norms have evaporated in Trump’s second term, and newer members often lack any memory of a functional legislature.

The conversation then turns to the political tensions shaping Capitol Hill, including Steve Scalise’s quiet maneuvering for the speakership, Trump’s latest approval dip, and the surprising lack of Trump fatigue among GOP lawmakers. Reese and Kate also outline the Democratic Party’s mix of opportunity and dysfunction heading into the midterms: strong messaging on affordability and bullish vibes contrasted with an inability to clear primary fields and a continued failure to operate as a true national party. From the dire mood on the Hill to which unknown members could soon be household names, this episode offers a sharp, insider look at journalism, politics, and power in Washington today.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and give his ToddCast Top 5 non-playoff college bowl games that should be played NEXT season.

 

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 NOTUS has filled a gap left by the Washington Post

03:00 The Washington Post has given up covering DC locally

06:00 Donald Trump finally engaging on the economy

06:30 Trump doesn’t accept the premise that the economy isn’t great

07:30 Trump blames Biden for all negative economic news

08:15 Majority of voters blame Trump for the bad economy

09:30 Trump proposes spending $2.6T in tariff revenue, only collected $250B

10:00 If Trump replaces income tax with tariffs, prices will go up 2-5x

10:45 Replacing income tax with consumption tax is incredibly regressive

12:00 Trump proposes farm bailout and cutting checks to taxpayers

13:00 Trump knows the economy is bad and wants to throw money at problem

13:45 The perception of economy in summer ‘26 will be perception for midterms

15:45 Trump worries short term, willing to push all problems off to his successor

16:30 Congress looking to extend ACA subsidies for ACA by two years

17:15 Healthcare is such a bad issue for GOP they are looking for off-ramp

18:30 Trump will have to endorse ACA subsidy extension for it to pass

19:30 Bill will likely have to pass the senate before the house

20:30 Gavin Newsom & Mark Kelly’s fight with Trump boosted their visibility

23:30 Mark Kelly’s bio has more charisma than he does 

26:00 Hegseth threatening Kelly gave Kelly some juice

26:30 Jasmine Crockett announces run for senate, is very savvy candidate

27:15 Crockett’s announcement video is grounded in fight with Trump

28:00 The fastest way to get traction is Democratic politics is to be a fighter

29:00 Being a fighter helps centrists avoid the progressive litmus test*

30:15 Republicans don’t run on policy ideas, they run on “owning the libs”

31:15 If you only run on fighting, you don’t stand for anything

32:30 Major policy debates become more about the fight and lose substance

34:15 There will be “issue” candidates for Democrats, but they likely won’t do well

34:45 Crockett vs Talarico will be “fight vs unite”

35:45 Nancy Mace writes op-ed saying Dems ram through their agenda

36:30 Dems also think Republicans ram through their agenda

37:30 GOP willing to take hard votes to fulfill promises, Dems less so

43:45 Reese Gorman & Kate Nocera of NOTUS join the Chuck ToddCast

45:15 What is NOTUS & how did you end up working there?

47:45 How do you execute being a truly nonpartisan newsroom?

49:15 You can’t balance the truth based on partisan affiliation

52:15 Is NOTUS the only incubator for young journalists in DC?

54:30 How Reese ended up at NOTUS?

57:45 Do you have to play to the algorithms when posting stories?

1:00:15 Being part of the non-legacy media is an advantage

1:02:45 The Washington Post has stopped covering local DC politics

1:04:45 Changes at the Kennedy Center aren’t being covered

1:07:15 Has Trump changed the culture of DC in his second term?

1:09:00 The relationship between the press and congress is more strained

1:11:00 The culture on the hill is very “cliquey”

1:12:00 There’s a lot more competition for scoops on the hill

1:13:00 What’s the mission of your podcast?

1:15:00 How does Steve Scalise continue to maneuver in the Republican party?

1:16:15 Scalise wants the speaker role currently held by Mike Johnson

1:18:00 Trump’s recent approval dip seems different than prior ones

1:19:00 There were still norms in Trump’s first term, there aren’t in 2.0

1:20:30 No sense of Trump fatigue from Republican members of congress

1:21:30 Can you tell which members are too trapped in an information bubble?

1:22:00 Pre-Trump members have a better sense of reality

1:23:45 New members don’t remember a time when congress was functional

1:25:45 How much of a problem could congressional leadership be for Dems?

1:28:15 Democrats could perform well running on affordability message

1:28:45 Democrats feel bullish headed into the midterms

1:30:00 The Dem establishment hasn’t been able to clear primary fields

1:31:45 Democrats aren’t a national party, can’t compete in 1/3rd of the country

1:33:45 The vibes and mood on the hill are terrible right now

1:34:15 If Dems win the TN-07 special, you could see wave of retirements

1:36:45 If you have DSCC questions, do you go to Schumer or Gillibrand?

1:39:00 A joint fundraising committee for Graham Platner is unlikely

1:40:00 Haley Stevens seems like a nervous candidate

1:40:30 Which unknown members could be household names in a year?

1:45:45 Where you can find Reese and Kate’s work

1:49:30 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with NOTUS

1:50:15 Ask Chuck

1:50:30 Will Trump’s policy tank support with latinos & put FL & TX in play?

1:56:00 Will you and Cillizza have a bet on the A&M vs Miami game?

1:58:00 Thoughts on electing the Attorney General independently?

2:04:45 Does Bernie Moreno’s bill ending dual citizenship pass legal muster?

2:07:30 ToddCast Top 5 bowl games that would be better played next season

2:08:30 Multiple schools have bowed out of playing non playoff bowl games

2:13:15 #1 Citrus Bowl - Texas vs. Michigan

2:14:00 #2 Pop Tarts Bowl - BYU vs. Notre Dame

2:14:45 #3 Pinstripe Bowl - Penn State vs. Clemson

2:15:30 #4 Sun Bowl - Arizona vs. Duke

2:16:00 #5 Hawaii Bowl - Cal vs. Hawaii

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