Lost Debate Why I’ve Changed How I Invest
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Oct 8, 2025 Ravi Gupta dives into the risks of investing in AI, questioning if it's a bubble reminiscent of past manias. He highlights the hubris in venture capital and its impact on pensions and public finances. Erratic government policies, trade wars, and historical bubble patterns are examined for their role in economic volatility. Ravi shares how he's reshaping his portfolio for resilience, emphasizing international exposure, cash holdings, and reduced US equity. It's a compelling look at navigating today’s turbulent markets.
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Amateurs Have An Investing Edge
- Professional money managers face incentives that discourage calling bubbles and going bearish.
- Amateurs can act faster because they lack quarterly reporting pressures and client flight risk.
AI Capex Far Exceeds Current Returns
- AI investment spending is enormous compared with current revenue from AI services.
- Massive capex and weak near-term returns raise the risk that AI becomes a commodity and valuations detach from reality.
Major Tech Often Breeds Bubbles
- Big technologies spawn bubbles because they promise massive change and attract excess capital.
- Past booms (railways, dot-com) destroyed value while still enabling long-term winners.