UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Data backlog
Nov 11, 2025
In this engaging conversation, Jason Draho, the Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS, dives into key insights on the impending government reopening and the delayed economic data release. He discusses the implications of private-sector labor market signals, revealing a mixed yet moderating picture. Listeners will also hear his takes on recent market volatility, especially in tech, and his strategic portfolio recommendations advocating for equities, particularly in tech and financials, alongside quality bonds and gold as a hedge.
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Plan Around The Data Backlog
- Expect a backlog of government data to be released over weeks and plan trading views around that timing.
- Monitor employment, retail sales, and inflation releases as they arrive to update Fed-rate expectations.
Fed Will Lack Real-Time Data For December
- The Fed will face limited real-time data at its December meeting, complicating the cut decision.
- That lack of fresh signals is why the market prices only ~65% chance of a December cut.
Labor Market Softening With Consumer Split
- Private-sector indicators show the labor market softening, but not collapsing yet.
- Consumer spending holds up overall with a clear split between higher- and lower-income households.