Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst known for his expertise in mortgage rates and economic trends, dives into the complexities of President Trump’s tariff strategies. He discusses the skepticism around tariff negotiations and their inconsistent impact on the market. Mohtashami also sheds light on the labor market, particularly the reliance on government and healthcare jobs. The conversation touches on bond yields, mortgage rates, and the significance of economic indicators for the housing market during the busy spring season.
Effective tariff implementation requires consistency and commitment over the years to ensure behavioral changes in trade practices.
The housing market may see increased inventory and demand, with mortgage rates stabilizing amidst fluctuating economic indicators and labor market challenges.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on the Economy
The discussion highlights the complexities surrounding tariffs, emphasizing that effective tariff implementation requires consistency and commitment over several years to induce behavioral changes in companies and international trade. The speaker suggests that without firm action on tariffs, it risks losing credibility in negotiations, drawing parallels to historical strategies that ultimately failed. As the political landscape shifts, the importance of not appearing as if negotiating from a position of weakness becomes evident, stressing that a lack of commitment can undermine future bargaining power. Given the current market reactions and the uncertainty surrounding trade, there is a pressing need for decisive measures rather than mere negotiation tactics.
Jobs Week and Economic Indicators
The upcoming jobs week is set against the backdrop of fluctuating economic indicators, particularly concerning inflation. The speaker notes that the latest inflation figures suggest a decline, which could influence mortgage rates positively as they are expected to remain below 6%. However, there is concern over the slowing growth rate of private payrolls, primarily dominated by government and healthcare jobs, which could lead to potential increases in unemployment rates. The dynamics of the job market are crucial for policymakers, underscoring the challenge of balancing economic growth while managing inflationary pressures.
Future Trends in Housing and Labor Markets
As the housing market enters its seasonal peak, there are expectations of increased inventory and demand, especially as mortgage rates stabilize. The conversation indicates that builders will need to adjust to labor market changes as job openings decrease, suggesting a potential impact on construction activity. Furthermore, regional variations in housing demand, particularly in states like Texas and Florida, are highlighted as key areas to watch in the upcoming months. The focus on labor trends, construction worker availability, and new home sales is crucial for understanding broader economic movements, especially as they relate to shifting mortgage rates.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about tariffs, jobs week and all the variables that can affect mortgage rates.
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.