HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on Trump’s tariff end game
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Feb 3, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst known for his expertise in mortgage rates and economic trends, dives into the complexities of President Trump’s tariff strategies. He discusses the skepticism around tariff negotiations and their inconsistent impact on the market. Mohtashami also sheds light on the labor market, particularly the reliance on government and healthcare jobs. The conversation touches on bond yields, mortgage rates, and the significance of economic indicators for the housing market during the busy spring season.
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Tariff Endgame
- Logan Mohtashami believes tariffs must be implemented immediately and maintained for years to change behavior.
- Negotiating tariffs weakens their impact and resembles a "trade war tap dance."
Spartan Analogy
- Mohtashami uses the Spartans' downfall as an analogy for Trump's tariff strategy.
- Predictability can lead to others finding ways to circumvent the strategy.
Disinflationary Trend
- PCE inflation data shows a disinflationary trend from global pandemics.
- Mohtashami suggests the Fed's aggressive approach may not be warranted given this trend.