

Tristan A. Volpe, "Leveraging Latency: How the Weak Compel the Strong with Nuclear Technology" (Oxford UP, 2023)
Dec 8, 2024
Tristan A. Volpe, an expert in nuclear policy and defense analysis, discusses how weaker states leverage nuclear technology against superpowers. He explores the concept of nuclear latency, illustrating when atomic capabilities can effectively compel stronger nations. Through case studies of Japan, West Germany, North Korea, and Iran, Volpe reveals the complexities of the threat-assurance trade-off. His insights highlight how nations navigate their nuclear ambitions within international relations and the delicate balance of power in the modern geopolitical landscape.
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Nuclear Latency as Coercive Tool
- Nuclear latency is a state's technical capacity to build nuclear weapons, primarily the ability to produce fissile material.
- Weaker states can leverage this latency to compel concessions from stronger states sensitive to proliferation.
Sweet Spot of Nuclear Latency
- Two prevailing views on nuclear latency are the "skeptics" who believe only operational weapons matter and the "maximalists" who believe advanced latency equals high coercive power.
- Volpe argues for a "sweet spot" of latency, enough for a credible threat but not too much to hinder credible assurances of non-proliferation.
Motivations and Effectiveness
- Countries don't solely invest in latency for bargaining; economic and security drivers are primary.
- However, they leverage these investments strategically, with effectiveness peaking at the "sweet spot" of latency.