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Tristan A. Volpe, "Leveraging Latency: How the Weak Compel the Strong with Nuclear Technology" (Oxford UP, 2023)

Dec 8, 2024

Tristan A. Volpe, an expert in nuclear policy and defense analysis, discusses how weaker states leverage nuclear technology against superpowers. He explores the concept of nuclear latency, illustrating when atomic capabilities can effectively compel stronger nations. Through case studies of Japan, West Germany, North Korea, and Iran, Volpe reveals the complexities of the threat-assurance trade-off. His insights highlight how nations navigate their nuclear ambitions within international relations and the delicate balance of power in the modern geopolitical landscape.

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INSIGHT

Nuclear Latency as Coercive Tool

Nuclear latency is a state's technical capacity to build nuclear weapons, primarily the ability to produce fissile material.
Weaker states can leverage this latency to compel concessions from stronger states sensitive to proliferation.

INSIGHT

Sweet Spot of Nuclear Latency

Two prevailing views on nuclear latency are the "skeptics" who believe only operational weapons matter and the "maximalists" who believe advanced latency equals high coercive power.
Volpe argues for a "sweet spot" of latency, enough for a credible threat but not too much to hinder credible assurances of non-proliferation.

INSIGHT

Motivations and Effectiveness

Countries don't solely invest in latency for bargaining; economic and security drivers are primary.
However, they leverage these investments strategically, with effectiveness peaking at the "sweet spot" of latency.

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Over the last seven decades, some states successfully leveraged the threat of acquiring atomic weapons to compel concessions from superpowers. For many others, however, this coercive gambit failed to work. When does nuclear latency--the technical capacity to build the bomb--enable states to pursue effective coercion?

In Leveraging Latency: How the Weak Compel the Strong with Nuclear Technology (Oxford UP, 2023), Tristan A. Volpe argues that having greater capacity to build weaponry doesn't translate to greater coercive advantage. Volpe finds that there is a trade-off between threatening proliferation and promising nuclear restraint. States need just enough bomb-making capacity to threaten proliferation but not so much that it becomes too difficult for them to offer nonproliferation assurances. The boundaries of this sweet spot align with the capacity to produce the fissile material at the heart of an atomic weapon.

To test this argument, Volpe includes comparative case studies of four countries that leveraged latency against superpowers: Japan, West Germany, North Korea, and Iran.

Volpe identifies a generalizable mechanism--the threat-assurance trade-off--that explains why more power often makes compellence less likely to work.

Volpe proposes a framework that illuminates how technology shapes broader bargaining dynamics and helps to refine policy options for inhibiting the spread of nuclear weapons. As nuclear technology continues to cast a shadow over the global landscape, Leveraging Latency systematically assesses its coercive utility.

Our guest today is Tristan Volpe, an Assistant Professor in the Defense Analysis Department at the Naval Postgraduate School and a nonresident fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Our host is Eleonora Mattiacci, an Associate Professor of Political Science at Amherst College. She is the author of "Volatile States in International Politics" (Oxford University Press, 2023).

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