The Outlier Trading Podcast Andrew Mack: Creating Edge in Options Trading & Sports Betting | The Outlier Podcast
Jul 16, 2025
Andrew Mack, a quantitative trader and sports bettor, discusses the fascinating overlap between options trading and sports betting. He explains how both fields rely on identifying edges and contrasts continuous markets with fixed-payoff bets. Andrew shares advice on finding opportunities in less-covered markets and the importance of testing trading ideas through methods like Monte Carlo simulations. He also emphasizes the significance of understanding counterparty dynamics and managing trader psychology, offering insights for both beginners and seasoned traders.
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Trading And Betting Share One Core
- Trading and sports betting share a single foundation: positive expectancy and edge.
- Differences arise in payoff convexity, continuity of markets, and sizing constraints.
Hunt Lesser-Covered Markets For Edge
- Look off the beaten path for edges instead of crowded markets like NFL/NBA or SPX futures.
- Target single stocks or small sports where coverage is thin but vet liquidity and spreads first.
Sequence: Edge First, Tradability Second
- Start by identifying an effect that looks like positive expectancy, then check logistics like fills and spreads.
- Sequence your research: edge first, tradability second.