Middle East Focus Venezuela's Shadow Over MENA: Perceptions and Precedents
Jan 15, 2026
Ken Pollack, Vice President for Policy at the Middle East Institute and former U.S. analyst, dives into how the Trump administration’s handling of Nicolás Maduro might reshape U.S. policy in the Middle East. He discusses the impact of U.S. military options against Iran’s regime during ongoing protests and evaluates the risks of economic coercion. Pollack contrasts the quick Venezuelan operation with the complexities in Iran, highlighting how such precedents could shift perceptions of U.S. resolve and influence regional stability.
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Regime Willingness To Use Lethal Force
- Iran faces widespread protests and a brutal regime crackdown that shows they will "kill as many people as they have to" to stay in power.
- Ken Pollack cautions that the regime's willingness to use lethal force makes outside influence uncertain in effect.
Options May Not Translate To Desired Outcomes
- The U.S. has many military options in Iran, from striking security forces to economic infrastructure, but their impact on protesters is uncertain.
- Pollack warns of economic and strategic blowback, especially if oil infrastructure is targeted, which would raise global oil prices.
Desperation Raises Unpredictable Threats
- Iran retains ballistic missiles, naval and air capabilities, proxy networks, and uncertain cyber tools that could be used if the regime feels existentially threatened.
- Pollack stresses the danger that desperate regimes may pull out all stops, including cyber attacks, whose full scope is unknown.
