Why trying to time small caps is a "big waste of time"

Aug 8, 2024

Greg Dean, founder of Langdon Equity Partners, challenges the common belief that timing small caps is essential. Dean argues that waiting for the 'perfect moment' can lead to missed opportunities. He shares insights about his hands-on investment approach, valuing deep research and accountability in management interactions. With over 300 company meetings annually, Dean emphasizes the importance of cash flow as a long-term indicator of success, while also critiquing short-term market trends and aligning management incentives with investor interests.

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ANECDOTE

Founding Langdon

Greg Dean left Fidelity to help scale a small asset management firm.
After 10 years, he co-founded Langdon Equity Partners, his "forever home."

INSIGHT

Uncommon Investing

Uncommon investment results require uncommon actions.
Langdon focuses on lesser-known smaller companies and uncommonly talented people.

INSIGHT

Embracing Uncertainty

You never know everything about a company, so get comfortable with uncertainty.
Diligence and rigor are crucial, but expect to learn more over time.

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Much has been made of the “Great Rotation” of late and the move away from highly concentrated large caps into small-cap equities, particularly in the US.

Greg Dean, founder of Langdon Equity Partners, is having none of it. When quizzed about whether the rotation was impacting how Dean and his team invest, the short answer was ‘no’.

Late last year, amid widespread commentary about 2024 being the ‘year for small caps’, Langdon wrote about the time and energy people spend talking about timing in small caps and called it a “big waste of time”. Dean feels a similar way about the rotation.

“The reality is if you wait for the perfect time, you've probably missed out on a lot of opportunity during that period when fewer people were interested”, says Dean.

Dean founded Langdon in 2021 on the concept of a “clean sheet of paper” – i.e. not being beholden to anyone but investors.

His philosophy is built on deep research and holding management to account, allowing him to ‘trust but verify’. He adds that speaking with management is a delicate balance that is often “executed poorly”.

“You think you have to be aggressive and definitive or you have to be a “yes” person and agree with everything that they're telling you, and neither of those is optimal”, says Dean.

In the following episode of The Rules of Investing, Dean delves deeper into small-cap investing, explains why he and his team take more than 300 individual company meetings each year, talks through the current portfolio tilt, and shares why the fund favours Europe over the US.

He also upacks two global small-cap stock ideas that highlight Langdon’s approach.

Note: This episode was recorded on 31 July 2024. You can watch the video or listen to the podcast below.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-trying-to-time-small-caps-is-a-big-waste-of-time-and-2-long-term-stock-ideas

Timecodes

0:00 - Intro
1:36 - Investment background and founding Langdon
5:05 - Biggest influences over the journey and why small caps?
8:39 - Investment philosophy origin story
11:01 - When is enough, enough?
12:45 - The Great Rotation and current market conditions
15:31 - Company meetings how the best stand out
20:09 - Honing the craft
23:42 - Current portfolio: underweight US, overweight Europe
26:58 - Why cashflow is Landon's North Star
28:07 - Other non-negotiables
29:12 - Testing beliefs
30:40 - Navigating patience as a small-cap investor
32:57 - Small-cap stock ideas
37:52 - What are investors getting wrong about today's markets?
49:27 - Courage of conviction
41:29 - The five-year stock