Carbon Capture: Innovation Rises as Investment Stalls
Aug 29, 2024
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Carbon capture is experiencing a fascinating transformation, with over $11 billion invested in 2023 but facing a slowdown in 2024. Innovations like Direct Air Capture (DAC) and novel ocean removal techniques are gaining traction. The discussion also dives into the impact of government policies and tax credits on global CCS projects. Surprisingly, whales play a role in carbon capture strategies. As the landscape evolves, the balance between investment, innovation, and environmental implications remains critical.
Investment in carbon capture technology is experiencing dynamic shifts, particularly influenced by regional policies and shifting corporate demands.
Direct air capture (DAC) is emerging as a key innovative approach in carbon removal, showcasing potential to meet rising demand despite funding challenges.
Deep dives
Investments in Carbon Capture Technologies
Investment in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by rising demands for net zero solutions. In particular, the Middle East has seen dramatic increases in funding, particularly in heavy industries such as cement and steel. The U.S. leads in overall investments, bolstered by government subsidies, although total private investment has dipped due to regulatory uncertainty surrounding tax credits like 45Q. A substantial amount of capacity additions are projected for CCUS, but it is anticipated that approximately 30% of these projects may be canceled, illustrating a complex investment landscape.
Regional Variations in CCUS Activity
Regional dynamics play a crucial role in the scale and speed of CCUS projects. In Europe, for instance, Germany is emerging as a hub for industrial decarbonization, significantly driven by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). These projects represent a trend towards forming CCUS hubs in port cities, concentrating investments and resources, while in the U.S., ongoing uncertainties hinder private sector momentum despite a robust foundation of federal support. Meanwhile, in regions like Australia and Asia-Pacific, interest and funding have slowed, with Australia pivoting toward hydrogen alternatives amid diminished public sentiment for CCS.
Emerging Innovations: Direct Air Capture
Direct air capture (DAC) is gaining traction as an innovative approach to carbon removal, with investments continuing to flow into this technology despite a slowdown in traditional CCUS funding. Various companies are developing advanced capture mechanisms that significantly reduce the energy needed for CO2 extraction by employing techniques such as electrochemical swings instead of traditional thermal methods. This evolution in DAC technology positions it as a viable competitor for addressing atmospheric carbon, with substantial corporate demand outpacing current supply capabilities. As the market matures, there is a pressing need to identify and support a few promising technologies to capitalize on potential growth.
Future Prospects and Challenges
The path forward for carbon removal technology hinges on clear policy development and effective government support. Without essential mandates and incentives, achieving scalability in CCUS is challenging, especially with rising economic pressures and the complex nature of carbon as a waste product. The success of DAC technologies will depend on their ability to meet the anticipated corporate demand and tightly knitted supply chains that can respond to project needs. As stakeholders await decisive government actions, there remains optimism that supportive frameworks will emerge to propel these critical technologies into mainstream adoption.
Carbon capture is on a roller coaster these days. Projects in the sector attracted more than $11 billion in 2023, almost double the investment figure from the year before, only to see growth stall in the first half of 2024. Fortunately, carbon removal technology reaches beyond the traditional ‘CCS’ model of carbon capture and storage (or ‘CCUS’ when a utilization component is involved). Coming from a small base, direct air capture, or DAC, is gaining momentum, and new technologies such as direct ocean removal are proving to be hubs of innovation.
On today’s show, Brenna Casey, a member of BloombergNEF’s Sustainable Materials team, joins Dana to discuss new directions in carbon sequestration, how tax credits and other policies are shaping CCS projects around the globe, and what whales have to do with capturing carbon. The episode draws on BNEF research including CCUS Market Outlook 1H 2024: Trough of Disillusionment and Direct Air Capture’s Technology Battle to Heat Up in 2030s.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com