Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl #58 Ed Arnold: Could Europe Defend Itself Without the US?
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Apr 9, 2025 Ed Arnold, a Research Fellow at RUSI and expert on European security, dives into Europe's evolving defense landscape. He explores why Europe's reliance on U.S. military support is waning and what it means for its security architecture. Discussing the complexities of NATO's collective defense and the pressing need for reforms, Arnold emphasizes the operational challenges Europe faces in standing alone, especially regarding threats from Russia. He outlines what a credible self-reliant European defense would entail and the political will required for significant change.
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Europe's Air Defense Shortfall
- Europe lacks sufficient suppression and destruction of enemy air defense systems, areas dominated by the US in NATO.
- Without these, European states would struggle to gain air superiority necessary to maneuver ground and naval forces effectively.
Readiness Key to Military Capability
- European armed forces face serious readiness issues, with limited deployable troops and often cannibalized equipment.
- This affects their ability to fully equip a large army and sustain a protracted conflict independently.
US Presence Critical for Deterrence
- The US role within NATO command and forces could be scaled back, complicating European defense and deterrence.
- Even small US deployments are important deterrents, as attacking US personnel triggers a US response.