#58 Ed Arnold: Could Europe Defend Itself Without the US?
Apr 9, 2025
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Ed Arnold, a Research Fellow at RUSI and expert on European security, dives into Europe's evolving defense landscape. He explores why Europe's reliance on U.S. military support is waning and what it means for its security architecture. Discussing the complexities of NATO's collective defense and the pressing need for reforms, Arnold emphasizes the operational challenges Europe faces in standing alone, especially regarding threats from Russia. He outlines what a credible self-reliant European defense would entail and the political will required for significant change.
Europe's reliance on U.S. military support for security is diminishing, necessitating a comprehensive reassessment of its defense capabilities and strategic planning.
Significant readiness challenges and logistical deficiencies within European military forces highlight the urgency for cohesive action and independent military strategies to address potential threats.
Deep dives
Shifting Security Dynamics in Europe
Since 2025, Europe can no longer count on unwavering support from the United States for its security needs, leading to a critical examination of its own defense capabilities. Historically, European security relied heavily on U.S. military assurance, with NATO playing a pivotal role in deterring potential aggressors, particularly Russia. However, a growing sentiment in the U.S. indicates that Europe may need to take greater responsibility for its defense, especially as issues surrounding military readiness and leadership come to the forefront. Without the U.S. commitment, European nations may face difficulties not just in military resources but also in cohesive strategic planning, as they have not fully organized their defense frameworks among themselves.
Military Readiness and Capability Gaps
European military forces are currently plagued by significant readiness challenges and deficiencies in key capabilities needed for effective defense. The suppression and destruction of enemy air defense and the ability to sustain long-range strikes are critical gaps that hinder European nations from adequately responding to potential threats. Moreover, many European armed forces struggle with logistics and operational readiness, leading to cannibalization of equipment, which undermines their overall combat capability. As the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated the necessity of sustained military engagement, these unpreparedness issues reveal serious vulnerabilities within European defence structures.
Challenges of European Leadership and Decision-Making
The absence of U.S. military leadership within NATO could lead to a fragmentation in Europe's collective defense strategy, complicating command and coordination during a crisis. European nations must navigate not only their own military capabilities but also the complexities of working together under a unified command during potential conflicts. Increased reliance on their own defenses brings into question whether European forces can respond adequately without U.S. support, particularly when facing swift Russian military responses. This urgency for collaborative action underscores the need for Europe to develop robust, independent military strategies while understanding the implications of delayed or limited U.S. involvement in any potential conflict.
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This is a conversation with Edward Arnold, a Research Fellow at RUSI and one of the clearest voices on European defense today. For decades, Europe’s security has relied on the assumption that the United States would always be there to lead, to help, and to fight if needed. But that assumption is quickly eroding and regardless of who sits in the White House, it’s becoming clear that Europe will have to rely more on itself.
In this conversation, I wanted to explore what that actually means in practice. I asked Ed three big questions: First, what’s broken in Europe’s current defense architecture that prevents it from standing on its own? Second, what would a credible, self-reliant European defense actually look like? And third, what kinds of reforms and political will would be needed to get there and whether we are on the right path.
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