What It's Like To Be... (BONUS) From Choiceology: “The Superforecasters”
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Mar 19, 2024 Exploring the decision-making process behind President Obama's raid on Osama bin Laden's compound, highlighting the risks and uncertainties involved. Insights on forecasting accuracy and the development of 'super forecasters' through probability training and team collaboration for improved predictions.
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Peter Bergen Interviews Bin Laden
- Peter Bergen recounted interviewing Osama bin Laden in 1997, when bin Laden declared war on the U.S.
- This conversation foreshadowed bin Laden's role as the key terror figure culminating in 9/11 attacks.
Compound Suspected as Bin Laden's Hideout
- CIA analysts tracked a white Jeep driving to a high-walled compound in Abadabad, Pakistan.
- The compound’s odd security measures made them suspect Osama bin Laden was hiding there.
NSC Weighs Bin Laden Raid
- The National Security Council debated whether to raid the compound, weighing evidence and risks.
- Views varied; some favored waiting for more intel, others pushed for immediate action.