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12min chapter
(BONUS) From Choiceology: “The Superforecasters”
What It's Like To Be...
Enhancing Forecasting Abilities through Probability Training and Teaming
Exploring the impact of probability training and team collaboration on forecasting accuracy, this chapter discusses an experiment where top performers engaged in forecasting geopolitical events. The chapter emphasizes the benefits of teamwork, tracking, and probabilistic reasoning in improving forecasting quality, challenging traditional beliefs about independent evaluation. It also highlights the importance of numerical predictions, record-keeping, and learning from past errors for continuous growth in forecasting skills.
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