Bits + Bips: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Crypto After the Assassination Attempt - Ep. 675
Jul 17, 2024
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Guest Jack Platts discusses market reactions to current events affecting crypto markets, potential rate cuts, BTC and ETH ETF predictions, German government running out of BTC, and Mt. Gox distributions. They analyze the impact of the Trump shooting on the election and market dynamics, rate cut possibilities in July or September, and the significance of Ethereum ETF launch. They also cover predictions for Bitcoin's future amidst market developments.
The market's reaction to Trump's assassination attempt may affect the 2024 US election and crypto markets.
Speculation on potential rate cuts in July or September could impact global liquidity cycles and Bitcoin's rise.
Anticipation of positive impact on the crypto industry with the launch of Ethereum ETFs.
Deep dives
Crypto Market Analysis
The podcast explores recent market trends, highlighting the impact of news events on trading strategies. Insight is provided on how market sentiment is influenced by political developments like Trump's potential comeback and its effect on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Institutional Investment in Ethereum
Discussion centers around the upcoming launch of Ethereum ETFs, predicting a positive impact on the crypto industry. Participants anticipate increased accessibility for traditional investors and potential market growth due to a new investment avenue in Ethereum.
Market Breadth Analysis
An analysis of market breadth trends reveals shifts in equity markets, pointing to potential positive developments. Findings suggest that factors like earnings growth and interest rate changes could drive small caps' performance, influencing broader market conditions.
Bitcoin Selling Concerns
Concerns are raised about ongoing Bitcoin selling activities by entities like Mt. Gox and Genesis, though participants express confidence in the market's resilience. Insights are shared on how past selling events have impacted Bitcoin trends and investor sentiment.
Political Influences on Crypto
The podcast delves into the potential impact of political shifts, such as Trump's policies on China and crypto trading. Speculation arises around China unbanning Bitcoin trading to compete with pro-crypto stances by other nations, offering interesting possibilities for the crypto market.
In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, and Joe McCann, joined by guest Jack Platts, dive into the market's reaction to the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, looking at how this event will influence the 2024 U.S. presidential election—and the crypto markets.
They also cover potential rate cuts: Could there be a cut this July? How big might the rate cut be in September? Could the decision ever be influenced by the upcoming election?
They also give their predictions for what percentage of the BTC ETF inflows the ETH ETFs will reach, and James talks about what he’s expecting for Grayscale’s ETHE (hint: his view would be positive for ETH).
Finally, they delve into what’s next for Bitcoin as the German government runs out of BTC and Mt. Gox distributions begin. Is it up only now?
Show highlights:
00:00 Intro
01:18 Whether the Trump shooting has settled the election and whether the event caused a “flight to safety”
11:23 How election markets are becoming a place to watch election odds and whether crypto “leans right”
20:16 Whether rate cuts are coming in July or September and how much they’ll cut: 25bps or 50bps
29:06 How Joe views the relationship between global liquidity cycles, rate cuts, and Bitcoin's potential rise
34:41 What new updates there are about the Ethereum ETFs and their expected launch
42:08 Why Solana hasn't outperformed significantly since the Trump news
43:25 What market breadth indicates about the current market rally and the impact of rates in small caps
49:01 Everyone’s predictions of ETH ETF inflows and how much outflows we’ll see on Grayscale’s ETHE
53:04 What’s next for BTC after the German government is out of bitcoin, and with Mt. Gox distributions starting this week
Hosts:
James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence