Odds on Open This Ex-Poker Pro Built a Hedge Fund by Betting Against Beta – David Orr on Asymmetric Bets
Jan 12, 2026
David Orr, a former professional poker player and founder of Militia Capital, shares his journey from playing poker to hedge fund management. He reveals how poker informed his investment strategies, focusing on risk management and asymmetric bets. Orr discusses the impact of the Bet Against Beta paper on his investment philosophy and highlights the importance of long-term thematic investing. He offers practical advice for aspiring investors and emphasizes the value of original thinking and support roles in the finance industry.
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Treat Investments Like Poker Bets
- David applied poker's expected-value mindset to investing and cut losing bets quickly.
- He treats ideas as bets and exits any thesis that isn't profitable within months or a few quarters.
From Pro Poker To Investing
- David stopped playing professional poker after bots made the game much tougher and winnings declined.
- He used poker earnings to start investing, initially putting money in the S&P 500 before learning different approaches.
Bet Against Beta Framework
- The 'Bet Against Beta' paper challenged the academic link between higher risk and higher returns.
- David began by shorting high-beta stocks and buying low-beta ones, then refined the approach with other strategies.