The podcast discusses Chinese overcapacity in the EV sector, exploring government shaping industrial policy, competition in semiconductor chips and airliners, and market perceptions on Chinese aviation products.
Chinese overcapacity in the EV sector results from supply stimulation policies and less demand responsiveness, leading to excessive exports.
European capitals face deindustrialization risks due to Chinese overcapacity in EVs, complicating trade dynamics and potentially sparking conflicts.
Deep dives
Chinese Overcapacity in the EV Sector
Chinese overcapacity in the electronic vehicle (EV) sector has led to a surge of exports, notably seen in companies like BYD. This overcapacity arises from a focus on stimulating supply within Chinese policies, coupled with a less responsive demand. This imbalance has pushed China towards exporting excessive capacity, notably impacting sectors like automobile. The intricate interplay between China's institutional setup, political system, and market dynamics drives these capacity surges.
Impact of Overcapacity and Policy Responses
The chronic affliction of overcapacity in Chinese industrial policy demands continuous suppression through orchestrated industry consolidation. Despite central policymakers aiming to address overcapacity, various Chinese agencies and local governments respond to supply stimuli, fostering lopsided supply-demand situations. Evidenced by the surge in Chinese EV manufacturers, effective policy responses include raising production license standards and gradually withdrawing subsidies to drive industry consolidation.
European Concerns and China's Trade Strategy
European capitals, particularly Germany, face concerns over deindustrialization as a result of Chinese overcapacity, particularly evident in EV exports. While Europe grapples with the threat of deindustrialization, the complex interplay between Chinese exports and European automakers complicates trade policy responses. China's strategic focus on gearing domestic industries for global leadership presents challenges for European markets, prompting tensions and potential trade conflicts amidst changing trade dynamics.
In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette,is joined by Yanmei Xie, Geopolitics Analyst with Gavekal Research, who has recently been publishing articles at Gavekal and the Financial Times. Today, Jude and Yanmei discuss her recent client notes on Chinese overcapacity and its EV sector.
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