Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

What Trump’s election means for Europe

Nov 15, 2024

In this insightful discussion, Célia Belin reveals the anxious mindset in France following Trump's election, while Piotr Buras analyzes the shifting political alliances in Poland. Anna Kuchenbecker shares the implications for Germany's recent political upheaval, and Arturo Varvelli highlights Italy's complex relations under Giorgia Meloni's leadership. The guests delve into how Trump's presidency may reshape European security, economic strategies, and diplomatic relations, urging a more unified European front in the face of emerging global challenges.

56:53

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Quick takeaways

Trump's re-election could prompt European nations to seek military and economic independence, reshaping their strategic alliances and responses.

Economic concerns over trade policies and potential tariffs under Trump's presidency highlight the need for Europe to bolster cooperation and competitiveness.

Deep dives

Reactions to Trump's Victory in Europe

The election of Donald Trump has elicited varied reactions across European capitals, reflecting a mix of concern and opportunism. In Paris, many citizens fear the implications of his presidency, as evidenced by Emmanuel Macron's early congratulations which belied a deeper anxiety about the future. Conversely, in Poland, Trump's victory bolstered the populist Law and Justice party, which aligns itself closely with him, utilizing his win to promote their political agenda ahead of upcoming elections. This dynamic highlights the complex interplay of domestic politics and international relations as countries navigate their responses to the new U.S. administration.

Intro

2min

European Reactions to Trump's Victory and Political Uncertainty

2min

Poland's Political Landscape Post-US Election

8min

Trump's Impact on German Politics

4min

Navigating Political Tensions: Italy's Coalition and Trump's Influence

4min

Europe's Strategic Response to Trump's Election

21min

Navigating Political Instability and EU Unity in Bulgaria

2min

Italy's Balancing Act in Global Politics

14min

Donald Trump's first stint as president – with his “America First” stance and isolationist foreign policy – disrupted relations between the US and Europe, especially over NATO, trade, and the climate. Now the world is faced with further challenges, such as the war in Ukraine: and Trump’s return could prompt European countries to seek greater military and economic independence from the US while collaborating to become a more unified front.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office; Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office; Anna Kuchenbecker, ECFR’s senior director of strategic partnerships; Maria Simeonova, head of ECFR’s Sofia office; and Arturo Varvelli, head of ECFR’s Rome office, to provide a view from the ECFR capitals. How have they reacted to the election result? How should their country governments prepare for Trump? Which challenges does Trump's return to the White House pose for Ukraine in the wider context of European security? How might Trump’s return affect the economy, escalate trade tensions, and reshape relations with China? And, crucially, what does his reelection mean for Europe?

The podcast was recorded on 13 November 13 2024

Bookshelf:

Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term by Célia Belin, Jeremy Shapiro, and Majda Ruge

Trump’s return is terrible news for Ukraine. Europe should step into the breach – but will it? by Timothy Garton Ash

Art of the deal: Four ways Europeans can find new trade partners in the Trump era by Alberto Rizzi

Living in Trump’s world by Mark Leonard

Dangerous manoeuvers: How Israel and Iran are preparing for Trump 2.0 by Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt

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