The Daily Why Polling on Gun Control Gets It Wrong
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Jun 7, 2022 
Nate Cohn, a domestic correspondent for The Upshot at The New York Times, dives deep into the complex world of polling and gun control. He explains how polls indicating overwhelming public support for measures like expanded background checks don't translate into voting behavior due to psychological biases and lobbying influences. Cohn also discusses the challenges faced by Republicans torn between personal beliefs and political pressure, showcasing the intricate and often confusing landscape of gun legislation in America.
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Polling vs. Voting
- Polls show overwhelming support for expanded background checks for guns.
- Actual voting on these measures reveals far less support, similar to a typical presidential election split.
2016 Referendum Results
- In 2016, background check referendums in Maine, Nevada, and California showed varying results.
- Maine rejected it, Nevada barely passed it, and California's support mirrored Clinton's, suggesting a partisan divide.
Poll Discrepancies
- Discrepancies between polls and votes arise from acquiescence bias (agreeing without thought), misunderstanding of questions, and status quo bias.
- People favor familiar situations when stakes are high, unlike in polls where there's no real impact.