Modern Wisdom #834 - Lyman Stone - Why Is Everyone Having Fewer Children?
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Sep 5, 2024 Lyman Stone, a demographer and fertility expert, dives into the surprising decline in global birth rates. He explores the connections between falling marriage rates and family size, revealing how winning the lottery can influence fertility differently for men and women. Stone discusses the paradox of reduced birth rates in affluent societies and examines the factors shaping modern family dynamics, including economic challenges facing young men. His insights illuminate the complexities surrounding contraception and societal attitudes towards reproduction.
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Declining Fertility and Historical Context
- Fertility rates in America and globally are declining.
- In 1800, the average was six children per woman, but child and female mortality skewed this number.
Surviving Fertility
- Humans target surviving fertility, having fewer children when more survive.
- This, plus later childbearing due to lower mortality, explains declines until around 1950.
Lottery Winners and Fertility
- Lottery winners tend to have more children after winning, especially men.
- This suggests increased wealth doesn't lower fertility.