Unhedged Vibes vs data
26 snips
Apr 1, 2025 Markets are on edge as economic sentiment wavers. Soft indicators like consumer surveys clash with hard data, causing confusion for investors. The conversation dives into Indonesia’s ambitious sovereign wealth fund and its potential pitfalls, raising governance concerns. Labor market stagnation and credit spreads are spotlighted, revealing broader economic health issues. Plus, the unpredictable world of Bitcoin adds another layer to the financial landscape, showcasing the challenges of navigating mixed signals in today's economy.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Economic Jitteriness
- Markets, investors, and companies are feeling anxious about the economy.
- Surveys of managers, consumers, and investors are grim, creating a dichotomy between soft and hard data.
Soft Data vs. Hard Data
- Soft data like ISM and Michigan Consumer Sentiment surveys reveal negative sentiment.
- However, the initial ISM flash estimates were inaccurate, highlighting the volatility of sentiment data.
Partisanship in Data
- Partisanship influences the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey results.
- Focus on the directional trend of sentiment shifts rather than absolute levels to glean meaningful insights.