The Duct Tape Marketing Podcast Why Goals Fail and How to Change the Odds
11 snips
Jan 29, 2026 
Kyle Austin Young, strategy consultant and author of Success Is a Numbers Game, explains why goals fail when people misunderstand odds. He introduces probability hacking and the success diagram. Short takes cover thinking negative to de-risk plans, why multiplying step probabilities sinks goals, and how multiple attempts and resilience change the math of success.
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Goals Are About Changing Odds
- Goals are better framed as changing odds, not mustering motivation or luck.
- Identify what must go right and where probabilities hide in potential bad outcomes.
Think Negative To De-Risk Plans
- Do think negatively: list everything that could go wrong for each prerequisite.
- Then use creativity to systematically de-risk those threats before executing the plan.
Winning A Job With A Success Diagram
- Kyle applied for a product director role at 21 and created a Success Diagram before his interview.
- He grew a beard, handed out a spiral-bound plan, and read the team's books to neutralize risks and won the job.
