Storm Warning: Why Hurricanes Are Growing Beyond Measure, with Michael Wehner
May 16, 2024
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Michael Wehner from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory discusses the need to add a Category 6 to measure extreme hurricanes due to climate change. He explores end-to-end attribution modeling to quantify the increasing damages caused by disastrous weather events.
Climate change is amplifying the impact of extreme weather events, leading to devastating consequences globally. Scientists aim to quantify the exact degree of damages caused by climate change-induced extreme conditions, hoping to attribute specific effects to human activities. Recent research suggests the need to introduce a new hurricane category, Category 6, due to intensifying storms linked to warmer ocean waters. The data indicates a surge in the occurrence of more powerful storms, emphasizing the urgency to address climate-related risks.
End-to-End Attribution of Climate Change Effects
Climate scientist Michael Wainer pioneers end-to-end attribution studies, calculating the increased destructiveness of storms specifically caused by climate change. These detailed assessments aim to determine the influence of human-induced factors on storm severity, offering insights for better policy decisions and adaptation strategies. Wainer's work focuses on Hurricane Harvey, demonstrating the significant impact of climate change on storm intensity, leading to increased flooding and damages. Such studies highlight the disproportionate effects on vulnerable populations, emphasizing the need for equitable climate action.
Adapting to Climate Change and Increasing Risk Awareness
Amid escalating climate risks, the imperative to adapt and enhance risk awareness becomes critical. Understanding the link between climate change and extreme weather events prompts the need for proactive measures such as revised building codes and education on weather-related risks. While the outlook may seem daunting, emphasizing human adaptability offers hope for mitigating climate risks through behavioral shifts and sustainable practices. Enhancing predictability through advanced climate models can further guide effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to combat the impacts of climate change.
We all know that extreme weather events like hurricanes are getting worse due to climate change, but what scientists would really like to know is: By how much worse exactly? This year a team of researchers argued that hurricanes have become so much more extreme due to climate change that we need to add a new category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson scale, which measures the wind speed of hurricanes.
One of those scientists was Michael Wehner from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Using the latest and fastest computers to model how a warming world is reshaping extreme weather events, Wehner is leading a new realm of climate modeling called "end-to-end attribution." This would allow us to not only understand how much worse disastrous weather is becoming but even quantify that difference in terms of damage and destruction.