Erdene & Rio2 (TSX:ERD & TSXV:RIO) - Two Gold Juniors Battle Market Skepticism on Path to Production

Jan 16, 2025

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Interview with
Alex Black, Executive Chairman of Rio2 Ltd.
Peter Akerley, President & CEO of Erdene Resource Development Corp.

Recording date: 13th January 2025

Two junior gold companies are approaching a significant transition from developers to producers, marking a rare success in the challenging mining sector. Erdene Resource Development and Rio2 Limited are both fully funded and on track to begin gold production, with their projects in Mongolia and Chile respectively.

Erdene Resource Development is advancing its Bayan Khundii project in southwestern Mongolia, with first gold expected in Q3 2025. The company has partnered with Mongolian Mining Corporation to fund and develop what CEO Peter Akerley describes as a "multi-million ounce camp." With an after-tax NPV of US$170 million at $1,800 gold, the project shows strong economics despite Erdene's current market cap of around US$146 million.

In Chile's Atacama Desert, Rio2 Limited is developing its Fenix Gold Mine, backed by Wheaton Precious Metals through a comprehensive funding package that includes $25 million in stream money, $100 million in pre-pay financing, $45 million cash in bank, and a $20 million cost overrun facility. The project hosts a substantial 5 million ounce gold reserve, with clear expansion potential.

Both companies face similar market challenges despite their progress. Rio2's Executive Chairman Alex Black notes that despite their project's NPV of about $800 million at current gold prices, the company's market value remains under $200 million. However, Erdene has seen some market recognition, with its share price doubling since September 2024.

Several factors support a positive outlook for gold mining development. Geopolitical instability, including Russia-Ukraine conflict and China-Taiwan tensions, reinforces gold's safe-haven status. Rising inflation and currency risks make gold an attractive hedge, while operating in countries with weaker currencies provides margin benefits for miners.

The sector also faces supply constraints as miners struggle with depleting reserves and limited new discoveries. Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) pressures add another layer of complexity, as evidenced by Rio2's experience with environmental permitting in Chile.

Both companies have positioned themselves for success through strategic partnerships and experienced management teams. While risks such as cost overruns, delays, and permitting challenges remain, their projects are largely derisked and fully funded. As they transition to producer status, both companies could see significant share price appreciation, though management emphasizes the importance of taking a longer-term view on these investments.