Top Traders Unplugged

SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

12 snips
Jan 24, 2026
Guest
Yoav Git
Yoav Git, Head of fixed income and commodity research at Gresham, explains why bonds can break down in inflationary regimes and how commodity trend strategies can act as a structural ballast. They discuss geopolitics, supply shocks, deglobalization, and why building robust portfolios matters more than forecasting. Short, sharp takes on commodities, bond fragility, and constructing inflation-resilient allocations.
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ANECDOTE

Recent Real-World Trend Triggers

  • Recent extreme commodity moves include net gas futures up 71% on a US cold spell and volatile JGB yields reflecting trust shifts.
  • Yoav and Niels use these events to illustrate how both weather and geopolitics create sudden trend opportunities.
INSIGHT

Bonds Lose Defense In Rising Inflation

  • Bonds become CPI-negative and more correlated with equities during sustained rising inflation, breaking the classic 60/40 defense.
  • Commodity trend often mirrors bonds and can structurally hedge inflation, making a bond+commodity-trend mix resilient.
ADVICE

Use A Bond + Commodity-CTA Building Block

  • Combine bonds with commodity trend to create a defensive building block that performs across inflation regimes.
  • A 50/50 split can deliver roughly CPI+4% historically and reduce the need to forecast inflation.
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