Intro

In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent research and market behavior, the conversation examines why traditional bond allocations struggle during inflationary regimes and how commodity trend strategies may offer structural resilience. The discussion spans geopolitics, deglobalization, energy markets, fixed income autocorrelation, and the limits of forecasting macro outcomes. Rather than predicting inflation’s path, the episode focuses on portfolio construction that can endure multiple regimes. What emerges is a disciplined argument for robustness over precision in an increasingly unstable global system.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and series context

01:08 - Inflation back on the radar

02:38 - Recent podcast influences and inflation narratives

06:56 - Geopolitics, trust, and market fragmentation

08:52 - Commodities, volatility, and supply driven moves

10:48 - Trend performance and early 2026 conditions

11:30 - Fixed income, FX, and emerging market trends

17:26 - The all weather portfolio problem

18:18 - Bonds, inflation regimes, and correlation breakdowns

22:39 - Commodity trend as a defensive building block

27:01 - Are markets signaling higher inflation ahead

30:04 - What commodity trend really means

33:35 - Institutional resistance to commodities

43:51 - Allocation stability versus macro forecasting

45:23 - Fixed income trends, carry, and autocorrelation

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