The Incerto Podcast

The Ludic Fallacy Explained

4 snips
Jun 3, 2021
Ask episode
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
INSIGHT

Life Is Not A Game Of Defined Variables

  • The Ludic Fallacy is the error of treating life like a game with fixed, visible variables.
  • Real-life uncertainty has hidden variables that break statistical models built on game assumptions.
INSIGHT

When Statistics Actually Work

  • Models and statistics work in closed systems like casinos where variables are visible and defined.
  • Once hidden variables exist, even controlled models become vulnerable to Black Swan events.
ANECDOTE

Champion In The Ring, Vulnerable On The Street

  • The host contrasts professional fighting (defined rules) with street violence to show rule-bound skill can fail outside the arena.
  • A champion used to ring rules can be vulnerable on the street where unknown variables appear.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Get the app