The Ludic Fallacy Explained
The Incerto Podcast
00:00
The Ludic Fallacy of Predictive Models
dr. John prefers instincts a third party asks them to assume that a coin is fair I it has an equal probability of coming up heads or tails and flipped So I flip it 99 times and get heads each time The question is then asked to dr. John of fat Tony. What are the odds of my getting tails on my next throw? Okay, so we understand it's extremely unlikely that we've got 99 heads in a row But dr. John the man of science who likes models He says the odds are not affected by the previous outcomes and so the odds must still be 50 50 which technically he would be rightTechnically he would beright but we're in the real world and dr.
Transcript
Play full episode
